What Will Happen?

I, like everyone else, have no fucking idea.

But what do I think (or strongly suspect (or expect)) will happen?

Kamala Harris will win the Electoral College by a significant margin. It will be a more decisive win that either Biden 2020 (306-232) or Trump 2016 (304-227). It will be similar to Obama 2008 (365-173). I would say “in a landslide”, but there is no exact, agreed-upon definition of an election landslide.

Harris will receive more total votes than Biden received in 2020 (81,283,501), meaning the first woman elected US president will have receive more actual votes cast than any previous candidate in the nation’s history.

Trump will receive fewer total votes than he received in 2020 (74,223,975). Trump hit his ceiling of support long ago. I see no evidence that he has (or even can) increase his numbers. Since 2020 — and especially since his (first) criminal conviction — he can only lose supporters. How many Biden-voters are going MAGA this time? Can you count them all on two hands? Whatever the number is, it’s statistically insignificant.

In 2020, Biden received 7,059,526 more votes than Trump. Harris could rout Trump by as many as 10 million votes. The stark consequences of this election will result in a record turnout. The total votes cast will top 155 million, breaking the record that was set in 2020.

Turnout Calculations

Federal Election Commission
55.7% in 2016
62.8% in 2020 (+7.1%)

U.S. Census Bureau
61.4% in 2016
66.8% in 2020 (+5.4%)

U.S. Elections Project
60.1% in 2016
66.6% in 2020 (+6.5%)

The 2020 turnout was the highest since 1900. I expect an even higher percentage this year.

Trump will file dozens of lawsuits alleging all sorts fraud, just as he did after 2020, and what will happen is what happened to those 60+ lost legal causes four years ago. Trump will be unable to show any evidence of fraud and courts will rule against or simply refuse to hear every one of his meritless challenges. However, there are numerous judges that are prepared to do Trump’s bidding even with a complete lack of evidence and highest court in the US is utterly corrupt and has shown its willingness to create fictional legal doctrine to give Trump exactly what he wants.

I cannot speculate about excessive violence, but everyone is obviously far more aware of the possibility in 2024. Trump called for a show of support for his various court appearances and New York trial — but when no one showed up the first few times, he stopped calling for support (and began lying that tens of thousands of people were outside the buildings).

Trump closed out his campaign by: (a) fantasizing about nine guns pointed at Liz Cheney’s face (which is being investigated as a possible death threat), (b) stating he “doesn’t mind” if journalists are shot to death at his rallies, (c) praising his “beautiful white skin” (although his face was an extremely garish orange), (d) calling Nancy Pelosi a “bitch”, (e) calling Kamala Harris “a shit vice president”, (f) whining that Fox had Oprah Winfrey “on all morning long” on Tuesday, and (g) miming giving his microphone stand a blow job during a four-minute rant at a rally (not long after expressing his admiration of Arnold Palmer’s horse cock). Trump also received the endorsement of NSC-131 founder Chris Hood, a Neo-Nazi who said Trump will help “preserve and improve” the plight of race separatists.

A Trump voter in North Carolina told Fox that Harris has a shitton of support. “I’ve been to the polls two or three times with my children who are first time voters—and they voted the correct way. And every time I was there I was outnumbered 20, 30 to one and in some cases it was worse than that.”

Democratic strategist James Carville: “Trump is trying a new message every other day, his people are finger-pointing . . . they’re all blaming each other already. . . . [H]is campaign has the smell of a loser, to me.” (That could also mean Trump’s diaper needs changing.)

Royce White, a Minnesota MAGA candidate for the Senate, is also a real piece of work. He has written previously that the “bad guys won” World War II and yesterday he opined that women “have become too mouthy” and marrying “an educated woman” is probably “not a good idea” because “educated women do not make for good wives and mothers”. White offered these pro tips on a podcast hosted by a man who believes allowing women to vote was “one of the greatest mistakes America made”.

Donut-ordering aficionado JD Vance was begging people yesterday to show up at Trump’s final rallies (as was a worried Charlie Kirk), which were very poorly attended. Vance, looking disheveled while speaking in Atlanta on Monday, referred to Kamala Harris as “trash”. (Trump has called Harris “a shit vice president”.)

Here is MSNBC’s Nicolle Wallace watching the clip for the first time, live on air:

Wallace: “JD Vance just doubled down on trash. . . . Let me put this up — this happened about 25 minutes ago. I haven’t seen this yet. Let’s play this. [Video clip of vance speaking at Atlanta rally: “In two days we are going to take out the trash in Washington, D.C., and the trash’s name is Kamala Harris.”] Oh, my god. I — Can I see that again? Can we play that again? [Clip plays a second time] Forgive me, one more time. [Clip plays a third time] In my humble view, lights out. Women — you can disagree with us. We’ve actually learned to take it for our whole careers all the time in every forum. But you call us trash? Oh, oh, oh, JD Vance, you just eff-ed up in a way that I’ve never seen in my political life — and I worked for Sarah Palin. I mean, what just happened?”

Tim Miller, The Bulwark: “He looks angry, also sweating, just the whole pastiche is horrible. He’s an angry, sweaty man yelling —”

Wallace (laughing): “— who just called the first female nominee for president, the Vice President of the United States, “trash”?”

Miller: “And it’s the day after — did you see the thing yesterday [at Trump’s rally] where the guy shouts at the crowd that Kamala’s job was on the corner, and Trump’s laughing — and he looks at her and says, “You said it, not me.” And that’s how these guys are ending, just angry and —”

Wallace: “Misogynistic. . . .”

Miller: “JD sort of became, at least not a problem, for Trump for the last month. If you remember that first month after he picked [Vance], it created this firestorm of reminding women (and the men that you’re talking about) why they hated Trump in the first place. The total disrespect, just treating them as second-class citizens. . . . And now you close the campaign with calling her “trash”. I mean, and the empty rally today. If you just look at the imagery of their last week — a lashing out and angry and bitter campaign.”

Is Elon Musk — the de facto CEO of Team Trump — currently committing treason by colluding with Putin and Russia in its expanding war with Ukraine — and standing in opposition to the United States? It sure fucking looks like it.